Mon. Oct 7th, 2024
(Last Updated On: )

Deutsche Bank Image

The earnings season has started, and several major banks in the Eurozone have already reported on how they performed in the fourth quarter of 2015, and the entire financial year. Most results were quite boring, but unfortunately Deutsche Bank once again had some bad news.

Just one week before it wanted to release its financial results, it already issued a profit warning to the markets, and the company’s market capitalization has lost in excess of 5B EUR since the profit warning, on top of seeing an additional 18B EUR evaporate since last summer. Deutsche Bank is now trading at less than 50% of the share price it was trading at in July last year.

Deutsche Bank chart

Source: stockcharts.com

And no, the market isn’t wrong about this one. The shit is now really hitting the fan at Deutsche Bank after having to confess another multi-billion euro loss in 2015 on the back of some hefty litigation charges (which are expected to persist in the future). And to add to all the gloom and doom, even Deutsche Bank’s CEO said he didn’t really want to be there . Talk about being pessimistic!

Right after Germany’s largest bank (and one of the banks that are deemed too big to fail in the Eurozone system) surprised the market with these huge write-downs and high losses, the CDS spread  (‘Credit Default Swap’) started to increase quite sharply. Back in July of last year, when Deutsche Bank’s share price reached quite a high level, the cost to insure yourself reached a level of approximately 100, but as you can see in the next image, the CDS spread started to increase sharply since the beginning of this year. It reached a level of approximately 200  in just the past three weeks, indicating the market is becoming increasingly nervous about Deutsche’s chances to weather the current storm.

CDS Deutsche Bank

Source: Boursorama.com

Let’s now take a step back and explain why the problems at Deutsche Bank could have a huge negative impact on the world economy. Deutsche has a huge exposure to the derivatives market, and it’s impossible, and then we mean LITERALLY impossible for any government to bail out Deutsche Bank should things go terribly wrong. Keep in mind the exposure of Deutsche Bank to its derivatives portfolio is a stunning 55B EUR, which is almost 20 times (yes, twenty times) the GDP of Germany and roughly 5 times the GDP of the entire Eurozone! And to put things in perspective, the TOTAL government debt of the US government is less than 1/3rd of Deutsche Bank’s exposure.

Oops.

Indeed, oops. And the worst part of all of this, is the fact the problems at Deutsche Bank are slowly penetrating the other major financial institutions. Have a look at the CDS spread of Banco Santander (from 109 in December to 170 now).

CDS Banco Santander Deutsche Bank

Source: ibidem

And Intesa Sanpaolo? From 82 in November to 147 right now.

CDS Intesa Deutsche Bank

Source: Ibidem

Something is rumbling in Europe’s intestines, and Deutsche Bank is leading the pack towards another huge financial crisis. The CDS spreads of literally ALL major European banks have posted huge changes in the past 3-4 weeks, and if you throw in the most recent messages from Citibank, stating the world economy is trapped in a death spiral, you might want to think about protecting yourself against yet another financial meltdown.

>>> Protect Your Wealth: Download our Exclusive Gold Report

Secular Investor offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Commodity Report.

Follow us on Facebook @SecularInvestor [NEW] and Twitter @SecularInvest

Your rating: None


powered by sue.ng a legal search engine

Read full article on hedge
February 2016
M T W T F S S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
29  
Buying and Selling FX is is easy and Safe on Nairalaw.com Agree What Nigerian Bank you ant To meet Verify and Pay the FX into your Account and Pay The Seller Easy Safe ALL Within The Banking Premises ! You can even walk into Select Banks and Ask To Speak To The Manager Code Word Nairalaw ! If anything goes wrong and you need legal representation . We are Here To Help ! YO CAN DO ONLINE FX DEALS VIA OUR DEAL ARBITER APP FREE . THEY ARE AT YOUR OWN RISK EXCEPT YOU PAY A SMALL CHARGE UPFRONT
BUY 1 MILLION UK US EMAILS AND START RESELLING ON ADVERTIS.I.NG BUY 1 Million UK US EMAILS AND START RESELLING FOR DMCA PLEASE CONTACT US

By admin