While Gundlach Was Warning That “Equities Are In A Bear Market” 2 Weeks Ago, He Was Busy Buying Stocks

  • Naira
  • February 26, 2016

If it feels like just two weeks ago when Jeffrey Gundlach was spewing almost daily fire and brimstone about the future of the market is because that’s precisely when he was doing just that.

Recall on February 8 when we wrote that in an email exchange with Reuters, the DoubleLine chief said “credit fund bankruptcies are coming,” adding that “it’s not a market to be flopping around in. The trends are relentless and powerful.”

 Gundlach also said, on a day when the VIX had risen to 26, that the VIX needs to surge above 40 before a bottom can be made in the high-yield junk bond market adding that “this is not a trader’s market” and instead “it is a freight train that you want to stay in sync with. There’s too much order and belief in markets in spite of big losses.

Most notably, he said equities are in a bear market, with the Nasdaq down 18.3 percent from its highs and “many, many, many stocks down over 25 percent from their highs” while on the topic of crude he said that “there’s simply no bullish case for oil right now.

Then, just three days later on February 11, he turned even more bearish saying that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce “as investors lose faith in central banks.”

“The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the ‘In Central Banks We Trust’ mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax,” Gundlach said.

So it may come as a surprise that just as Gundlach was warning about the impending failure of central banks, the lack of a “bullish cash for oil”, about a bear market for stocks, and about an imminent surge in gold Gundlach was…. buying stocks.

As Reuters reports Jeffrey Gundlach “said on Friday that his firm purchased some U.S. stocks two weeks ago after their rocky start in January.”

“I thought it was a good buy point two weeks ago Wednesday and so we bought some,” Gundlach told Reuters. Gundlach, who oversees $90 billion in assets for the Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, said the firm was at “maximum underweight” since last August.

Also remember the “no bullish cash for oil” just two weeks ago? Well, that’s changed too: “He also said oil will “really easily” rally toward $40 a barrel as the price has dropped so much. Last year, Gundlach correctly predicted that oil prices would plunge, junk bonds would live up to their name and China’s slowing economy would pressure emerging markets. In 2014, Gundlach also correctly forecast U.S. Treasury yields would fall, not rise as many others had expected.”

Basically, Jeff Gundlach just pulled a David Tepper who, as we reported one week ago, added 75% to his long positions after saying “Now A Good Time To Take Money Off The Table

Which makes sense: buy when others are fearful, especially if you are stoking said fear.

That said Gundlach hasn’t completely lost his “bearish” bias and Gundlach said the Shanghai Composite, which is trading around 2,767 points, is set to fall to around 2,500.

In other words, if Gundlach was buying stocks when he was spewing fire and brimstone, it is probably safe to assume that with today’s bullish reversal, he is taking advantage of the relentless ramp to unload as much as he can. As for the Shanghai Composite: it may be time to buy.

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